:Forest Folk

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While on the face of it with the possibilities of current technology it seems like an obvious step, before now the acquisition of distressed loan portfolios had taken place through several marketplaces with no one-stop shop. Now this has changed with the appearance of a company optimized for dealing in loans through a bidding format, applying Web technology along the same lines as eBay.

Banks, investors, et cetera can acquire portfolio packages using a national platform to find offers at low cost. Small packages thus turn into a smart purchase, making the market open to more investment. This system is able to support any type of portfolio, whatever its size, and performance.

All online auction houses can reach more clients than traditional shops, and the degree of access offered to investors by this system is far from an exception. Significant economies can be made as a consequence of a transition to modern business models to which location and time are of less importance, granting companies truly international scope to their activities.

Getting in touch with the greatest number of leads is essential to dealing in any product. Consequently, when you register with our web site and list portfolios, you get all the data required, whenever you want it. Dealing in loan packages just became much less problematic, and so much more streamlined. When marketing loans, the more information you can use, the more opportunity you have for securing great results. The more transparent the data on purchasable loan packages is, the better your ability to reduce risk and make the most of your investment.

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Net trading is able to take full advantage of the endless openings of online commerce. Sure, there’s no smarter way to buy, they say, than online — what most people regrettably miss is that by the same token there’s no smarter way to sell, either…

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Never until now have people looking to sell bank loan portfolios had the ability to visit just a single dedicated market. Now they can be acquired using a method made popular by the development of e-commerce — the online bidding process in the style of Ebay.

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Keeping subprime and consumer loans standardized instead of fragmented leads to the choosing what to invest in becoming much less effort. The economy here isn’t only financial as a speedy transaction will also save time for both sides of the transaction. Add to this open bidding and all transactions are far more likely to close with, thanks to direct discussion, a good likelihood of gain for all parties. Web sales in any market, including loan packages, is able to take advantage of the boundless possibilities of e-commerce. They say there’s no smarter way to buy than using the internet — what most people fail to spot is the corrolary — there’s no smarter way to sell, either…

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Single market transactions involving distressed loan portfolios had until recently not been possible. Now, a company designed with the Ebay auction principle as a design goal has come to the forefront and set out revolutionizing the model, with loan purchasing approached using a modern mindset. Banks, investors, et cetera can acquire loan packages by watching a nationwide platform to find offers at what’s often a significant discount. Minor packages in this way become a worthwhile purchase, meaning the market becomes more open to all investors. This widening of the doors permits any loan to be considered. Just like any other Web firm, selling subprime loans and consumer loans via this system aids you in reaching many more investors more easily than ever before. Location and time are no longer significant concerns and business can be conducted day and night, which saves everyone a substantial quantity of time and money.

Approaching the greatest number of leads is essential to the sale of any product. The better the information you can assemble, the easier it will be to sell whatever you want to sell. This sector of financial opportunity naturally comes with more risks than others and the wisest method of avoiding these, is, once again, precise data. How much can you actually save by guaranteeing an optimum of transparency? Standardized loan level information lays control of selling loan portfolios squarely in your hands, rather than handing it over to a third party broker. Due to the need to strike a balance between exposure and profit implicit in the loans business, full and frank communication that takes transparency of information to be a necessity proves profitable for both sides of the deal which makes full information disclosure a called for new business standard. Avoiding fragmentation in packages ensures assessment is straightforward in terms of picking oiut the ideal package. Time is not wasted in this manner — not merely for the buyer but equally, of course, for the seller. Remember that this service employs an open bidding strategy, and naturally there are many prospective buyers eager to get the best deal, all of whom have the same information transparency.

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A mortgage loan modification is easily an agreement through which you get to ‘change’ your mortgage loan repayment terms. The terms in question here include the amount of repayments, the regularity of the repayments and hence the total mortgage loan repayment period. It is usually done in the face of new emerging circumstances that make it difficult for you to keep up with the prior terms that you had at first entered into with the mortgage lender.

There are a number of ways that a mortgage loan modification can help you. For one, by mortgage loan modification, you are able to protect yourself from an discomforting foreclosure: Which would certainly be the end result if your not keeping up with mortgage payments, if you decided to do nothing about it. Therefore if the financial problem you are facing is temporary, and you are already doing something about it, you can use the mortgage loan modification strategy (where your monthly repayments are slightly reduced, with the total mortgage loan repayment period extended) as a way of supporting yourself through the transition period. Indeedahere are even some mortgage lenders who are willing to let you stop paying them for a while (typically a predetermined period of time), and then start repaying them at the end of that period. Upon the end of the period, optimistically the improvement of your financial situation, you can start repaying your mortgage in larger payments or have the mortgage repayment period extended, so as to make up for the ‘lost time’ in either case.

It is worth noting, obviously, that not every mortgage provider will find the proposal of mortgage modification agreeable. There is no harm, if your finding yourself unable to keep up with your mortgage obligations, to ask your mortgage provider whether a mortgage modification is something they would consider. Odds are that as long as it not totally against their policy, and you can show them how it is in their best interests to modify your mortgage, they will approve of your request.

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Never until now have investors intending to buy or sell loan portfolios been able to use just a single dedicated market. Change is now coming with the creation of a firm specifically fashioned for the sale of portfolios employing a bidding format, similar in approach the highly successful Ebay.

Having developed a customer base as a nationwide platform, loans are collected into packages that can be bid on — typically at respectable prices. Small packages thus become a smart use of resources, leaving the market open to more investment. Place and time have stopped being of significant importance and business can be conducted twenty-four seven, which saves everyone a respectable amount of both money and time. The cardinal rule in sales is to make certain that your potential customers have a chance to hear about whatever product you offer, and there is still no more efficient way to spread the word than applying the power of net audiences.

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Any and all possible customers must be found and contacted for them to learn you have packages they might be interested in. This marketplace consequently offers any applicable data on hand to any registrant at a time of their asking — rendering the sale of loan packages smoother and more effective. To sell loan portfolios, the greater the degree of information available, the better the results will be. When scrutinizing any kind of loan portfolio, information transparency provides a clearer view of what you’re paying for and accordingly reduces the overall risk you carry.

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Web sales can take full advantage of the endless opportunities of e-commerce. As it offers a wider range, dependable standardization of information, and a chance to put your hands on packages assembled to your precise wants, the question becomes: why not deal online?

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So, you have made up your mind that you are interested in the world of forex trading. Now, all you need to do is find which is the best forex trading online possible. My advice to you is to give yourself plenty of time to conduct research to find the best system.

If you have decided that you need to break into the forex world, there are some matters you will definitely need to weigh first. If you are serious about your decision and you truly desire to learn forex trading, then you need to take these steps.

When I was growing up, my father had this saying, “You know, there’s many ways to skin a cat.” What he intended would take me a while to figure out. But now I understand; especially since I survive on doing forex online. So what is this forex you speak of? Well, in short, online forex is the method of operating your foreign exchange, or forex, account on autopilot.

There are numerous ways that you can educate yourself about forex trading. One way is to have a tutor of sorts. If you know someone who is seasoned in automated forex, then you may want to ask them if they would be inclined to help you learn forex trading. If having a private instructor is not an alternative for you, then you will need to either buy or download a tutorial, or open a practice account and start practicing trading in a simulated automated forex market.

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We know that greed and fear rule the markets. But did you know that when investors gets too greedy, markets usually fall, and when investors are overcome with fear, markets usually rise. So how can when we monitor investors emotions and take advantage of investors emotional extremes?

Welcome to the world of investor sentiment analysis.

Investor psychology has been analysed for at least 250 years. Charles MacKay wrote his book, ‘Extraordinary Popular Delusions And The Madness Of Crowds’, in 1841, describing, among other manias, the herd mentality that caused the South Sea Bubble. Since then, many academics have published financial theories based on the concept that individuals act rationally and consider all available information in the decision-making process. But real life frequently demonstrates that the behavior of equity markets is irrational and unpredictable. A field known as “behavioural finance” has evolved over the years attempting to explain how emotions influence investors and their decision-making process. Studying human psychology helps predict the general direction of financial markets as well as many stock market bubbles and crashes. At the height of a period of optimism, greed moves stocks higher, ignoring business fundamentals and therefore creating an overpriced market. At the other extreme, fear moves prices lower, ignoring obvious opportunities and creates an undervalued market.

One important study, (”Aspects of Investor Psychology,” The Journal of Portfolio Management, Summer 1998) found that investors are much more distressed by prospective losses than they are made happy by equivalent gains. Some researchers theorize that investors “follow the crowd” and conventional wisdom to avoid any regret in the event their decisions prove to be incorrect.

QUANTIFYING INVESTOR EMOTIONS OR INVESTOR SENTIMENT

When a stock or market index rises, we know that it means investors are more eager to buy than to sell. But how can we accurately gauge just how investors feel?

Most often, investors are somewhere between mildly positive and mildly negative, and only occasionally do they demonstrate the extremes of greed or fear. It is easier to detect emotion when it is close to either irrational exuberance or outright fear. When markets act this way, it becomes “news” and moves from the business section, to being featured at the start of the evening news, and on the front page of the daily newspaper.

The success of charting as a tool, depends on investors repeating their behaviour patterns. There is always a comfort factor in doing the same as others and generally an aversion to behaving differently. Investors display herding instincts in their behaviour and this has become particularly noticeable among institutional investors. In the early stages of a rising trend in a market, positive sentiment can act as a positive driving force as everyone rushes in to join the party. However, there comes a time after the trend has been in place, when this positive sentiment acts as a warning that the trend is nearing its climax. That’s when smart investors will start switching to alternative investments.

The most sophisticated and active players in the market use derivative products to effect their transactions. These players tend to display earlier changes in emotion than most investors and normally their emotions run to greater extremes. So, derivative markets are a good source of data on investor sentiment. There are various options available on stocks, ETF’s and indexes. By using an option pricing formula, we can extract a measure of how much investors are prepared to pay for the possibility of making a profit, or hedging against a loss. This is known as implied volatility, and it provides a mathematical valuation of investor emotion. Implied volatility tends to be high (the scale is inverted) when the market has had a sharp fall and this is associated with investor fear. At the other extreme, low implied volatility often occurs after a rise in the market and when investors are becoming complacent.

Implied volatility image
http://www.theuptrend.com/ebook/ImpliedvolatilityAA.gif

WHAT IS THE VIX?

VIX is the symbol for the Chicago Board Options Exchange’s volatility index for the S&P 500 (SPX). It is a measure of the level of implied volatility and not historical or statistical volatility. A numerical value for the VIX has been published by the CBOE since 1993. The method of calculating VIX was changed in early 2003. Instead of using the S&P 100 (OEX) Index options, it is now calculated using the options on the S&P 500 (SPX). Also note that the VXN is the symbol for the implied volatility index of the NASDAQ 100 index.

The implied volatilities are weighted to give the VIX a value that in effect acts as the implied volatility of an at-the-money SPX option at 22-trading days to expiration. The VIX represents the implied volatility of a hypothetical at-the-money SPX option. If implied volatility is high, the premium on options will be high and vice versa. Generally speaking, rising option premiums reflect rising expectation of future volatility of the underlying stock index, which represents higher implied volatility levels. The higher the VIX, the more panic in the markets and the greater the chance that investors have given up hope, taken their money, and gone home.

Comparing the movement of the VIX with that of the market can quite often provide clues as to the future direction the market might move. The more the VIX increases in value, the more “panic” is an issue in the market place. On the flip side, the more the VIX decreases in value, the more complacency there is amongst investors. The psychological impact measured by a relatively high VIX is a clear indicator that tells traders markets are oversold. A historic example was displayed on July 23rd 2002 when the VIX shot over 55. That big move coincided with a significant low in the Dow Jones Industrial Average that was followed by a 1,034-point, six-day rally. That rally didn’t stick and the market again re-tested its July low in October of 2002. But throughout this double bottom in 2002 the VIX accurately identified a major directional shift in the market. At its core, the VIX is a statistical measure of emotions, and emotions are a major factor signalling capitulation in the market.

Sample charts
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INVERSE RELATIONSHIP

Extremely high readings of VIX indicate market bottoms, while low readings indicate market tops.

The VIX actually has an inverse relationship to the stock market. This is one of the first things you’ll notice when viewing the VIX on a bar chart. When the VIX goes down the stock market moves higher. When the VIX advances, the stock market is headed lower. Generally speaking, a rising stock market is considered less risky by investors. On the other hand, a declining stock market is considered more risky. Therefore, the higher the perceived risk by investors the higher the implied volatility. This will make options, especially put options, more expensive.

When the phrase “implied volatility” is mentioned, keep in mind that it is not about the size of price swings. Rather it’s the implied risk that is associated with taking a position in the stock market. When the stock market declines, the demand for put options usually increases. Increased demand means higher put option prices.

USING VIX to TIME the MARKET

One early study identified a VIX value of 25 as normal, and a value above 35 as high. Between October 1997 and May 2001 the VIX indicator went above 35 eleven times. In this study, the S&P 500 index as represented by SPY ETF. was purchased each time and held until the VIX retreated below 25. There were 9 profitable trades for an average gain of 3.1% and an average holding period of about one month. By using this VIX timing scheme you could capture 80% of total gains in the market, but your money is only at risk one third of the time.

Sample chart
http://www.theuptrend.com/ebook/Impliedvolatility3.gif

Extremes in fear mark great buying opportunities.

Sample chart
http://www.theuptrend.com/ebook/Impliedvolatility4.gif

THE CONTRARIAN VIEW POINT OF THE VIX

An extended and/or extremely low VIX suggests a high degree of complacency and is commonly considered bearish. From the contrarian view point ,many traders are of the opinion that if the VIX becomes low, they’ll begin looking for a reason to begin selling stock. On the flip-side of the coin, a very high VIX can indicate a high degree of anxiety which often leads to panic among options traders. This action is often considered bullish by the contrarian, and they’ll look for reasons to begin buying stock. High VIX readings usually occur after an extended or sharp market decline with investor sentiment still very bearish. Some contrarians view readings above 35 as bullish. Hence, they’ll begin looking for a major market turn to the upside.

The VIX should be used in conjunction with “regular” analysis of price action on price charts. The wise trader will never make a purchase or sale based solely on the price level of the VIX. The wise trader will use the VIX (and its support and resistance levels) in conjunction with the price action of charts of the S&P 500, the Dow, and the NASDAQ.

Using the VIX with charts of these indices will help you get a good grasp of the current market psychology. Since market movements are based entirely on human emotions, it is important for traders to understand psychological indicators. When the VIX is used correctly it helps you stay on the right side of the market and make profitable trades.

SUMMARY
Understanding Investor Sentiment (or Investor Psychology) is by far the most powerful tool an investor can use to understand exactly where the stock market is, and where it is going. But it is often hard to digest, as it is counter intuitive to our human nature.

Here is a recent example that will help illustrate this point.

In September 2005, the TSX was making multi year highs. While the VIX Indexes was down near multi year lows. Standing back and looking at these two pieces of information, you might question the wisdom of adding long-term money to this market at this time.

You might, but human nature would not.

From GARY NORRIS
Canadian Press
Mon Oct 17, 3:58 PM ET

Canadians are shovelling money into mutual funds almost like it’s 2001 again, with September purchases of $1.8 billion - up from net redemptions of $545 million a year ago.

The Investment Funds Institute of Canada said Monday that investments in long-term funds - equity, bond and other funds excluding short-term money market funds - topped half a trillion dollars for the first time. “This underlines the fact that investors are making long-term commitments to funds, and not simply parking their investments temporarily in money market funds,” commented Tom Hockin, president of the fund industry association.

Sales in the first nine months of the year, net of redemptions and excluding reinvested distributions, totaled $18.4 billion, “the highest net sales figure since the same period in 2001,” Hockin observed.

Yes, you read that correctly, Canadian have not been this enthusiastic since the last time the market was peaking.

TSX Sample Chart
http://www.theuptrend.com/ebook/ImpliedvolatilityB.gif

Now we don’t have enough data yet, but since Canadian Mutual Fund investors did their “extreme” mutual fund shopping last month, the market has already dropped 800 points.

Now ask yourself, if you were going to put money into this market, was September the best, low risk time to do so in the past 5 years? Were these investors thinking analytically, or did the emotion of greed cloud their judgments?

My guess is that this is what I like to call “Panic Buying”, of Canadian Mutual Funds last month, will signal the very top of this market, and be the catalyst for a major sell off.

Only time will tell if I am right.

Stephen Whiteside is the founder and CEO of the leading stock market trend analysis site, TheUpTrend.com. Each day, we provide Smart Money Alerts on the top 1500 North American stocks. Stop by www.theuptrend.com and get a 30 day free trial!

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